Insee Focus · May 2024 · n° 326

Electricity and gas prices for business customers expected to remain well above their 2021 levels in 2024

Raw material and energy prices have risen sharply in Western Europe since the end of 2021.

After deducting various forms of subsidies such as the "electricity shock absorber" and the "cap for very small businesses", and in the absence of any new measures, electricity prices to business customers are expected to drop by 15% in 2024, but would still be 67% higher than in 2021.

Comparing prices in 2024 gross of subsidies with prices in 2023 net of subsidies, the fall would be limited to 11%. Without taking into account the subsidies which had been granted for three years, prices to business customers would have fallen by 23% in 2024, while remaining 74% higher than in 2021.

Suppliers of natural gas forecast a 12% fall in prices to business customers in 2024, before deducting subsidies. Prices would thus almost return to their 2022 level, but would still be 62% higher than in 2021.